Canadian Mortgage Rate History
The 10-year story of the two numbers that move every Canadian mortgage — the Bank of Canada policy rate (which drives variable rates) and the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield (which anchors fixed rates). Live, sourced, and free to cite.
How to read this chart
The Bank of Canada policy rate is a step function — it only changes on the Bank’s fixed announcement dates. Prime (and your variable-rate payment) moves almost in lockstep with it, so the flat-then-jump shape is exactly what a variable borrower feels.
The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield trades every day and usually moves aheadof the Bank — it’s the market’s bet on where rates are heading. When the gold line turns, 5-year fixed mortgage rates tend to follow within weeks.
A decade of Canadian rates in three phases
Emergency lows
In March 2020 the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate to 0.25% in response to the pandemic and held it there for about two years. Bond yields fell with it, and borrowers who bought or renewed in that period locked in some of the lowest fixed rates on record. Those are the mortgages now coming up for renewal at higher rates, which is the subject of our renewal cliff report.
The fastest tightening in a generation
From March 2022 the Bank raised rates rapidly to bring inflation down, reaching 5.00% in 2023. Variable-rate borrowers felt every increase. Some with fixed-payment variable mortgages reached their trigger rate, where the payment no longer covered the interest, and bond yields and fixed rates climbed alongside.
Easing again
The Bank began cutting in June 2024, and by July 2026 the policy rate was back down to 2.25%, with prime at 4.45%. The chart above shows where it stands today. Bond yields didn’t fall as far, because markets price where rates are expected to go, not only where they are. That’s why the gap between variable and fixed rates keeps shifting.
What history can and can’t tell you
The chart shows how quickly conditions can change within a single five-year term, which is a good reason to stress-test your own budget at a higher rate than today’s. It can’t tell you where rates go next, and nobody can reliably time the market. The practical questions are how much payment risk you can carry, how long you expect to keep the mortgage, and how much flexibility you need if your plans change. Our fixed vs. variable guide walks through that decision.
Mortgage Squad Advisors, "Canadian Mortgage Rate History," September 2026. Data: Bank of Canada Valet API. https://www.mortgagesquad.ca/insights/canadian-mortgage-rate-history
Journalists & researchers: free to cite or embed with attribution and a link. For a custom data pull or commentary, contact info@mortgagesquad.ca.
History is context. Your rate is today.
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Sources & method: Both series are pulled live from the Bank of Canada Valet API (used under the Bank of Canada terms of use): the Target for the Overnight Rate (series V39079) and the Government of Canada 5-year benchmark bond yield (BD.CDN.5YR.DQ.YLD). Charted monthly over 10 years and refreshed automatically. The bond yield is a proxy for where 5-year fixed mortgage rates anchor, not a mortgage rate itself. Reviewed by Mortgage Squad Advisors (FSRA #13737). Last data point: 2026-09-22.
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